Edouard Carmignac writes on current economic, political and social issues each quarter.
Dear Investor,
Yet again the real purpose of the European elections has been obscured, with domestic politics pushing real issues out of the spotlight. The biggest farce was the stirring up of our ageing population’s fears in the name of preserving national sovereignties. To the contrary, overcoming the challenges we face and enhancing our freedoms in the long term will require strengthening the confederation of our sovereignties, which are now increasingly regional at a global scale.
Time is running out. Much is at stake.
Our defence. The invasion of Ukraine cruelly exposed our vulnerabilities. Europe has shown unable to provide decisive support to an ally on our doorstep, without heavy backing from the United States. We are not able to protect our territories, with our ground-air curtain particularly deficient. Admittedly, our defence budgets are inadequate, but they are also heavily weighted towards purchases from non-European suppliers (80%). The five largest US arms companies supply 80% of the US defence budget. The equivalent figure in Europe is 45%. Not only should our defence budgets increase but we must coordinate, promote the modularity of our equipment and cut imports.
Our competitiveness. For years, we have pursued a suicidal strategy combining the quest for lower labour costs with the boosting of purchasing power through futile stimulus packages. To what end? Anaemic consumption and a weakened social model. We owe it to ourselves to implement an industrial policy to address and reverse our growing technological gaps, notably in artificial intelligence and biotechnologies. Europe now has just four of the world’s fifty largest technology companies.
Our control of immigration flows. Failure to control immigration is lethal to the social fabric of all European countries. It sits at the heart of the temptation to turn inwards, as so powerfully demonstrated in these elections. Only a rigorous immigration policy applied by all European Union countries can prove effective. It must also be applied with discernment given that three quarters of European companies struggle to recruit qualified staff.
Green growth. Our ecological policies are a fiasco. Under pressure from well-meaning but brainwashed green leaders, most of our renewable energy supplies come from China. If we were to apply electric vehicle production targets, at least 60% of our car fleet would come from China by 2030! What’s more, the absence of tax incentives in Europe contrasts with the American Inflation Reduction Act, thus pushing our companies to shift their investments outside our borders. Green expansion should be encouraged on our own soil and our industries protected by penalising imports that do not meet our ecological standards.
Undoubtedly, an ambitious and courageous programme. Even more, as European governance will be undermined by the meaningful weakening of the Franco-German tandem. It is of utmost importance to appoint a President to the European Commission with proven intellectual authority and negotiating skills. Back in July 2012, Mario Draghi averted the implosion of the eurozone with his now historic “whatever it takes”. He has proven uncanny abilities to reignite European integration by reconciling the often outdated differences between our nation states.
With this measured expectation, let me extend you my warmest regards.